I live in North Carolina, not the northeast, but this is the best channel I’ve found for me to see the latest model runs. At the time he posted this video, the latest European model hadn’t been released, yet. But of the two models discussed, I must say I prefer the UKMET (sorry, Florida) because Matthew would be almost guaranteed to be a tropical storm by the time it got up here. The weaker, the better. Either way, we’ll be getting a crap ton of rain, which we DO NOT NEED. Heck, two of our rivers have flooded within the last couple of weeks.
Here’s another one with a more detailed discussion of the GFS model run:
Looking at the just released 5am update from the National Hurricane Center, Matthew is forecast to come onshore just to the west of Cape Lookout in Carteret County late Saturday night as a Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds, then move northeast along the southern Outer Banks, exiting just north of Cape Hatteras in the wee hours of Sunday morning. I’m not sure I buy that much weakening, frankly. On this track, my area would experience tropical storm conditions.