Hurricanes are strange

Have y’all seen the latest GFS model?  And I thought yesterday’s European model was strange.

Okay, according to the GFS, Matthew will move up the east coast of Florida, right along the edge, then Georgia a bit further off shore, then make this sharp, easterly turn off of South Carolina.  Then, this is where it gets weird, it makes a loop and goes back to the Bahamas and ends up off of Miami, again!, next week.  This is extremely good news for me, but not so much for Florida and the Bahamas.  Remember, yesterday’s European model had it do something very similar.  Nicole has put a really big spanner in the works just by its existence to the east of Matthew.  Because of Nicole, Matthew can’t just go east and out to sea, it has to go south.  Very bizarre.

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And it keeps getting worse…

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HurricaneTrack Matthew Discussion

Not liking this AT ALL.  And it seems I’m not the only one skeptical about this storm’s forecast strength.  Hurricanes don’t usually maintain Category 5 status for long, so if it is one midway up the east coast of Florida, then would, most likely, be a four or, if we’re really lucky, a strong three by the time it comes ashore close to Cape Fear.  Not good.

Hurricane Matthew Forecast Tracks

I live in North Carolina, not the northeast, but this is the best channel I’ve found for me to see the latest model runs. At the time he posted this video, the latest European model hadn’t been released, yet. But of the two models discussed, I must say I prefer the UKMET (sorry, Florida) because Matthew would be almost guaranteed to be a tropical storm by the time it got up here. The weaker, the better. Either way, we’ll be getting a crap ton of rain, which we DO NOT NEED. Heck, two of our rivers have flooded within the last couple of weeks.

Here’s another one with a more detailed discussion of the GFS model run:

Looking at the just released 5am update from the National Hurricane Center, Matthew is forecast to come onshore just to the west of Cape Lookout in Carteret County late Saturday night as a Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds, then move northeast along the southern Outer Banks, exiting just north of Cape Hatteras in the wee hours of Sunday morning. I’m not sure I buy that much weakening, frankly. On this track, my area would experience tropical storm conditions.

085025w_sm_nhcmatt-5am_10-04BTW, the stats say the storm is moving north at 9 mph, but the satellite loops I’m seeing this morning look to me like it’s moving northeast or north-northeast.

Shipwrecks, tree rings reveal Caribbean hurricanes in buccaneer era

Records of Spanish shipwrecks combined with tree-ring records show the period 1645 to 1715 had the fewest Caribbean hurricanes since 1500, according to new University of Arizona-led research. The study is the first to use shipwrecks as a proxy for hurricane activity. The researchers found a 75 percent reduction in the number of Caribbean hurricanes from 1645-1715, a time that had little sunspot activity and cool temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere.

Source: Shipwrecks, tree rings reveal Caribbean hurricanes in buccaneer era

Meso Low

A cool weather feature, it occurred this morning, shared on YouTube by, Matt Engelbrecht, the chief meteorologist at one of the local stations.

They so got it wrong!

When I went to bed last night, all local stations, and the National Weather Service, were forecasting something between 0.5 and 1 inch of snow.  Imagine my surprise when I woke up and it was already snowing in some areas and they started throwing 2 and 3 inches around.

This is what my backyard looks like right now, and it’s still falling.

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Crystalline View

The sun’s up, and I just took this shot from the front porch.  Not much melting went on yesterday, so that limb’s till hanging.  It’s just gorgeous sparkling like fine crystal in the light.

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In the Land of Cold and Ice

Otherwise known as my front yard.  I think that freezing rain is the most beautiful form of precipitation produced by Mother Nature.  Everything glistens and sparkles.  Unfortunately, they also slip and slide.  Right now, we still have power, but the the lights have flickered every now and then, and the next block over lost theirs about 6:30 this morning.  So, fingers crossed.  I have plans for a big, warm, comforting bowl of beef stew for dinner, and I can’t do that if I don’t have electricity.  Knock on wood.

Here are some photos of the glimmering gorgeousness:

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Happy 4th of July, y’all!

Arthur, the overachieving Category 2 hurricane that was forecast to be a Cat. 1, is heading out this morning.  It made landfall on Shackleford Banks last night, a barrier island famous for its wild horses.  We’re far enough inland that we didn’t get anything too bad, although I won’t know how many tree limbs I’ll have to pick up until the sun comes up.  It’s just starting to get light, now, and I don’t see too many, so, yay.  🙂

Other than hurricane clean up, my plans for the day include hanging out with family, watching the World Cup, and pigging out on ribs.  How about y’all?