Hurricanes are strange

Have y’all seen the latest GFS model?  And I thought yesterday’s European model was strange.

Okay, according to the GFS, Matthew will move up the east coast of Florida, right along the edge, then Georgia a bit further off shore, then make this sharp, easterly turn off of South Carolina.  Then, this is where it gets weird, it makes a loop and goes back to the Bahamas and ends up off of Miami, again!, next week.  This is extremely good news for me, but not so much for Florida and the Bahamas.  Remember, yesterday’s European model had it do something very similar.  Nicole has put a really big spanner in the works just by its existence to the east of Matthew.  Because of Nicole, Matthew can’t just go east and out to sea, it has to go south.  Very bizarre.

And it keeps getting worse…

150356w_sm-nhcmatthew-11am_10-04

HurricaneTrack Matthew Discussion

Not liking this AT ALL.  And it seems I’m not the only one skeptical about this storm’s forecast strength.  Hurricanes don’t usually maintain Category 5 status for long, so if it is one midway up the east coast of Florida, then would, most likely, be a four or, if we’re really lucky, a strong three by the time it comes ashore close to Cape Fear.  Not good.

Hurricane Matthew Forecast Tracks

I live in North Carolina, not the northeast, but this is the best channel I’ve found for me to see the latest model runs. At the time he posted this video, the latest European model hadn’t been released, yet. But of the two models discussed, I must say I prefer the UKMET (sorry, Florida) because Matthew would be almost guaranteed to be a tropical storm by the time it got up here. The weaker, the better. Either way, we’ll be getting a crap ton of rain, which we DO NOT NEED. Heck, two of our rivers have flooded within the last couple of weeks.

Here’s another one with a more detailed discussion of the GFS model run:

Looking at the just released 5am update from the National Hurricane Center, Matthew is forecast to come onshore just to the west of Cape Lookout in Carteret County late Saturday night as a Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds, then move northeast along the southern Outer Banks, exiting just north of Cape Hatteras in the wee hours of Sunday morning. I’m not sure I buy that much weakening, frankly. On this track, my area would experience tropical storm conditions.

085025w_sm_nhcmatt-5am_10-04BTW, the stats say the storm is moving north at 9 mph, but the satellite loops I’m seeing this morning look to me like it’s moving northeast or north-northeast.