Hurricanes are strange

Have y’all seen the latest GFS model?  And I thought yesterday’s European model was strange.

Okay, according to the GFS, Matthew will move up the east coast of Florida, right along the edge, then Georgia a bit further off shore, then make this sharp, easterly turn off of South Carolina.  Then, this is where it gets weird, it makes a loop and goes back to the Bahamas and ends up off of Miami, again!, next week.  This is extremely good news for me, but not so much for Florida and the Bahamas.  Remember, yesterday’s European model had it do something very similar.  Nicole has put a really big spanner in the works just by its existence to the east of Matthew.  Because of Nicole, Matthew can’t just go east and out to sea, it has to go south.  Very bizarre.

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And it keeps getting worse…

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HurricaneTrack Matthew Discussion

Not liking this AT ALL.  And it seems I’m not the only one skeptical about this storm’s forecast strength.  Hurricanes don’t usually maintain Category 5 status for long, so if it is one midway up the east coast of Florida, then would, most likely, be a four or, if we’re really lucky, a strong three by the time it comes ashore close to Cape Fear.  Not good.

Hurricane Matthew Forecast Tracks

I live in North Carolina, not the northeast, but this is the best channel I’ve found for me to see the latest model runs. At the time he posted this video, the latest European model hadn’t been released, yet. But of the two models discussed, I must say I prefer the UKMET (sorry, Florida) because Matthew would be almost guaranteed to be a tropical storm by the time it got up here. The weaker, the better. Either way, we’ll be getting a crap ton of rain, which we DO NOT NEED. Heck, two of our rivers have flooded within the last couple of weeks.

Here’s another one with a more detailed discussion of the GFS model run:

Looking at the just released 5am update from the National Hurricane Center, Matthew is forecast to come onshore just to the west of Cape Lookout in Carteret County late Saturday night as a Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds, then move northeast along the southern Outer Banks, exiting just north of Cape Hatteras in the wee hours of Sunday morning. I’m not sure I buy that much weakening, frankly. On this track, my area would experience tropical storm conditions.

085025w_sm_nhcmatt-5am_10-04BTW, the stats say the storm is moving north at 9 mph, but the satellite loops I’m seeing this morning look to me like it’s moving northeast or north-northeast.

They so got it wrong!

When I went to bed last night, all local stations, and the National Weather Service, were forecasting something between 0.5 and 1 inch of snow.  Imagine my surprise when I woke up and it was already snowing in some areas and they started throwing 2 and 3 inches around.

This is what my backyard looks like right now, and it’s still falling.

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In the Land of Cold and Ice

Otherwise known as my front yard.  I think that freezing rain is the most beautiful form of precipitation produced by Mother Nature.  Everything glistens and sparkles.  Unfortunately, they also slip and slide.  Right now, we still have power, but the the lights have flickered every now and then, and the next block over lost theirs about 6:30 this morning.  So, fingers crossed.  I have plans for a big, warm, comforting bowl of beef stew for dinner, and I can’t do that if I don’t have electricity.  Knock on wood.

Here are some photos of the glimmering gorgeousness:

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On the Perversity of Mother Nature

Mother Nature is certainly a perverse bitch with a really weird sense of humor.

If y’all’ll remember, last snowstorm, the forecast gurus said we were going to get about a foot of accumulated snow.  Then, however, warm air worked into the storm, and we got about an inch or two of sleet, then between 4.5 and 5 inches of snow.

This time around, the forecast was for between 2 and 4 inches of snow for yesterday, the a whole mixed bag of stuff for today.  What we actually got yesterday was between 7 and 9 inches of snow.  Some areas closer to the coast received 12.  I kid you not.  To repeat:  Forecast a foot, we get less than half; forecast a few inches, get nearly a foot.

I am so not looking forward to today’s ice event, and the expected power outages even less.  Of course, since the forecast says snow, then ice, then rain, I’m sure Mother Nature’ll mix it up even more, just for fun.

Now that daylight has broken…

Here are some better photos of my snow and ice covered yard.  First, what’s supposed to be my driveway.  You can’t see it, or the road.

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The driveway from a different place on the porch, with some of the front yard.  Luckily, that tree has no foliage.  If it did, those limbs would be crystalline and look like a glass sculpture touching the snow covered ground.  Gorgeous, magically so, but bad for our chances of keeping electricity.  Luckily, we haven’t lost it.  Yet.  Knock on wood.

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Believe it or not, there is a ditch beyond the bushes in this next photo.  Just a few feet on the other side of it is the road.  Notice the paw prints in the snow.  My cats don’t know what to think.  They are why a few of the pictures are a little blurry.  Just trying to help, honest.  🙂

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And the car has a thick layer of snow on top of the ice that coated it last evening.

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My deck at about 4:30 am

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Again, sorry about clarity.

Snow Update

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My back deck about 2:15 am.  Sorry about the clarity, I took this through the back door window.